Economic warning signs for the Buckeye State
Donald Trump and the Republican Party are all talking about the latest jobs report, but they are hoping you don’t dig into the state-level numbers, particularly in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio.
That’s because the economic news is not nearly as rosy in the Buckeye State, whose economy pays the price of Trump’s broken promises and failed policies more than almost any other state.
Turning to one key, and less favorable, recent sectoral development, many different data sources have shown weakness in manufacturing employment, driven by the trade war and slower global growth. What is sometimes not emphasized enough in this context is that both of these factors tend to put upward pressure of the US dollar. As trade economist Rob Scott pointed out in a recent op-ed: “The dollar has climbed 10 percent since the tariffs first took effect in March 2018, and has also risen 11 percent against the [Chinese] yuan in the same period. This lowers the cost of imports and raises the cost of U.S. exports…”
And while the national data show continued job growth, Ohio is going in reverse.
- Since January 2019, Ohio has lost 10,300 jobs.
- 2019 will likely be the first year since 2009 — the height of the Great Recession — in which Ohio loses jobs.
- Ohio has lost 7,300 manufacturing jobs since January.
If you don’t like numbers, check out these headlines from across the state:
“Steel company sells for less than half what it was worth when Trump took office”
“TimkenSteel cutting jobs as part of restructuring”
“Murray Energy files for bankruptcy as U.S. coal decline continues”
Even as the national recovery, which started under President Barack Obama, continues, Crain’s Cleveland notes that Ohio “is stuck in neutral when it comes to job creation.”
Trump promised that Ohio’s manufacturing jobs were “all coming back” — but workers that lost their jobs at the General Motors plant in Lordstown know the truth: “He lied.” A Timken retiree said, “I don’t see any revitalization.”
Trump promised he would stop corporations from shipping jobs overseas, but that was another lie. Trump’s tax scam actually encourages corporations to outsource jobs, and his trade war by tweet isn’t helping. In fact, it’s hurting Ohio farmers, small businesses and consumers.
As Bernstein and other economists have pointed out, Trump’s tariffs are driving up the value of the dollar, which makes imports cheap and exports more expensive, increasing the U.S. trade deficit even further.
Now Trump is threatening more tariffs, and there’s still no trade deal, despite all of the president’s bluster.
Trump can brag about the jobs report all he wants, but the facts are clear — his policies are making things worse for the economy, and they’re making things worse for Ohio’s economy, in particular.
It’s been one broken promise after another from Donald Trump, and Ohio workers are paying the price.
